TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/10/2014

for the week ,the S&P500 index opened at 1,879.45 and closed at 1,878.48 making ,again, almost no movement .

Looking at the support resistance picture (below)

 
S&P500 index support resistance picture

as you can see,once the 1870 level was broken , the S&P500 held it’s ground above it , which is a good sign the sellers are willing to buy at a higher price.

As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:
(click here for help on the info below)

TradeProphet Triggers

All three major indices have a long trigger issued yesterday ,in addition,SH (Short S&P500) has a close long trigger, only boosting the long statement for the market.
the VIX has a close long trigger also to complete the picture. “The cards have spoken!”,the market is headed up. no time to short it.

Lets now look at the Growth portfolio, growth stock were out of favor lately, TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
(click here for help on the info below)

TradeProphet Triggers

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
ANIK	Long	5.82	10.77%	14.30	0.24	67.07%	-8.64	09/05/2014
EDU	Long	6.97	8.92%	21.30	0.08	32.89%	1.12	09/05/2014
KORS	Long	22.73	0.00%	77.75	0.02	20.37%	28.54	09/05/2014
PEGA	Long	10.76	6.63%	14.80	0.18	50.80%	1.28	09/05/2014

The only suggestion for the growth model portfolio are EDU and PEGA,The rest of the suggestions are risky.The market is not very hungry for risk at these levels so I would leave the risky stocks aside.
I would not go with KORS,ANIK since the beta is extremely high,but PEGA and EDU seems like a nice choice for a long opening position.

Any good triggers in the Value portfolio ? lets look at the issued triggers :

TradeProhet Triggers

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
BAH	Long	13.27	2.69%	15.13	0.09	24.62%	0.98	09/05/2014
NATR	Long	659.83	0.10%	12.69	0.13	33.15%	4.08	09/05/2014
TNH	Long	10.22	24.91%	9.51	0.24	42.98%	1.24	09/05/2014
WNR	Long	12.58	11.79%	13.45	0.30	77.88%	4.10	09/05/2014

still loyal to the lower risk play,out of the suggested list I would recommend TNH and BAH for opening a long position.
Again ,since the market is moving in the long position(see above),I wouldn’t recommend a short position.

Conclusion time - The market seems to be opening another long move(despite current high levels),under that assumption ,I wouldn't recommend going short but choosing the longs wisely,

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
S&P500	Long	5.65	5.33%	12.40	0.08	18.79%	0.75	09/05/2014
Dow 30	Long	6.04	3.73%	12.12	0.07	15.96%	1.67	09/05/2014
Nasdaq 100	Long	5.19	16.80%	16.18	0.07	24.91%	8.01	09/05/2014
SH	Close Long	6.34	0.69%	12.82	0.05	12.04%	-1.67	11/04/2014
VXX	Close Long	7.41	7.31%	17.53	0.16	55.44%	-5.27	09/05/2014

Happy trading,
The TradeProphet team.

 

TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/3/2014

For the week the S&P500 index started at 187.05 and finished at 188.06 moving up about 0.5%.

looking at the support-resistance picture (below) for the S&P500 we see that the market had made a substantial move this week, breaking the 187 resistance line and holding its ground above it .

S&P500 Support Resistance

As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:

(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
Nasdaq 100	Close Long	20.55	1.99%	15.65	0.09	28.17%	0.37	14/04/2014
DOW 30	Long	6.04	3.73%	12.12	0.07	15.96%	1.67	02/05/2014
S&P500	Close Long	5.65	5.33%	12.40	0.08	18.79%	0.75	01/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

Trigger issued by the TradeProphet system are based on criteria other than technical, so despite the fact that the market broke resistance line, the triggers are not yet clear. Leaving the Nasdaq 100(the trigger was issued two weeks ago),the DOW was issued a Long position, and the S&P500 issued a trigger to close the Long position.

Taking it all in, the market may have started a long move up, We will have to follow the TradeProphet triggers for next week, maybe the long position will be issued for it as well.

Lets now look at the Growth portfolio, growth stock were out of favor lately, TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :

(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
ANIK	Long	6.40	31.81%	18.20	0.10	34.21%	4.20	02/05/2014
EDU	Long	6.97	8.92%	21.30	0.08	32.89%	1.12	02/05/2014
KORS	Long	6.78	6.70%	15.51	0.06	16.93%	1.97	02/05/2014
KORS	Long	8.87	3.35%	13.16	0.09	21.49%	2.56	02/05/2014
MELI	Long	5.17	46.28%	20.36	0.13	49.26%	-5.62	02/05/2014
SAVE	Long	7.33	11.56%	11.40	0.14	30.49%	0.22	02/05/2014
XRS	Long	16.85	1.01%	19.12	0.05	14.19%	-33.56	02/05/2014
XRS	Long	5.45	4.92%	8.04	0.21	31.96%	-1.03	02/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

I must say that the attractive stocks seems to be KORS (though the Alpha isn't that high..) and XRS which issued a Log position with P/L of 16.85 (look at how uncorrelated the stock with the market, another good vibe..).

Any good triggers in the Value portfolio ? lets look at the issued triggers

Ticker	Position	Profit/Loss Ratio	Max. Draw Down	Sharpe	Std. Deviation	Alpha	Beta	Order Date
GTAT	Long	5.50	9.32%	17.90	0.10	34.13%	16.75	02/05/2014
HLF	Long	5.64	7.79%	8.10	0.45	69.62%	8.19	02/05/2014
IDCC	Long	6.21	11.15%	8.75	0.40	67.83%	6.48	02/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

It looks like a high-risk,high-return for the value stocks right now, HLF looks on a good position to move up (keep a tight stop-loss, or let TradeProphet do it for you).

So, to conclude, I think the market as a whole is ready to move up,some gems in the growth list(KORS,XRS) and the risk is high but maybe worth it(HLF).

Happy trading,

The TradeProphet team.